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superfly v black uk

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8:50 pm
October 19, 2016


four

Member

posts 138

"To have a chance, we have to play with a good team, knowing that two days
later we have to play in the Premier League."

So spoke Jose Mourinho on Wednesday and within his almost-paradoxical
statement lies the problem of betting on Premier League teams in the Europa
League.

Certainly at this stage, the competition is rarely deemed more important than
a domestic match for the English sides and with United's forthcoming fixture
being Chelsea away on Sunday, you'd imagine something will have to give.

When you also consider United come into the game off the back of a
high-intensity clash at Anfield on Monday night and also have a looming EFL Cup
derby with local rivals City coming up next week, you can see Mourinho will
likely have been planning to rest several of his top players for this clash.

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When he changed most of his side in this
competition against Feyenoord last month they were beaten, while even with a
stronger line-up they only just scraped past Zorya Luhansk last time out.

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At least there are story arcs to grab some interest – it
was against these opponents that Wayne Rooney scored a hat-trick on his United
debut 12 years ago, while Robin van Persie returns to Old Trafford after a
rather subdued departure in 2015.

Betting angles are harder to find, thought. Fener's form is somewhat
indifferent so even a much-changed United side should fancy their chances,
although whether you'd want to back them at 4/7 is open to question.

One angle could be to side with a player my colleague David John mentioned in
his preview of Monday's game, Jesse Lingard.

As it turned out, the youngster was one of those to make way for the more
defensive system that Mourinho employed to the desired effect.

He'll likely be one of those to return and having got himself into some good
positions of late, could be of some interest in the goalscoring markets (11/4
any time, 8/1 first).

The same can be said of Paul Pogba (29/10, 15/2), who appears to be settling
into a more advanced role now, although he would appear less likely to be
involved.

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In any case, I can see this being another low-scoring
affair – like the Zorya game – and frankly I'd rather look elsewhere in search
of profit.

After seeing Inter Milan humbled for a second time in the Europa League three
weeks ago, I was getting quite excited about getting a good price on Southampton
beating them on matchday three.

They'd still be priced up too much on name and reputation and not enough on
form, was the theory.

Unfortunately, Inter's results have gone from bad to worse, while Saints'
impressive run has continued apace and they are now unbeaten in seven, having
won five of those.

So instead of getting 5/1 or even more, as I'd hoped, the visitors are no
bigger than 11/5 to win in the San Siro which is short enough.

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Southampton's defence has been watertight while
further forward Dusan Tadic and Nathan Redmond have been flourishing and helping
Charlie Austin grab the headlines.

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Austin, a player who has scored goals consistently at
every level he's played at, has now netted seven times in his last six
games.

But despite that, and a huge game for the club up next, boss Claude Puel has
suggested that Austin – and some of his other first-choice players – won't be
involved on Thursday night.

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